This paper studied 758 Brazilian wind power projects on the basis of energy auctions between 2009 and 2019 and analyzed investment and scale. It also provided an overview of the expected performance of these projects, especially in terms of costs and economic feasibility, using the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Our intention is to present results that allow us to question if the policies for this renewable energy have been effective in Brazil. The evolvement of these projects became clear in the findings, namely in the increase of capacity factors, and in the reduction in total investment and LCOE. The scale of majority of the projects are under the scale of 31 MW of installed capacity, and the projects above this threshold have lower LCOE, resulting in an inconclusive discussion if it might be seen as evidence of scale gains. The LCOE values were calculated using the two main taxation methods in Brazil, confirming the market expectations that the presumed profit method provides lower expenses than the actual profit method. The projects are expected to be in a critical economic situation, with LCOE averages being far higher than the auction price averages, raising concerns about the Brazilian renewable energy policies.

Energy Policy, Vol. 164

Artur Santa Catarina

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