Under the Paris Agreement, each participant country established its Nationally Determined Contribution aiming at reducing its emissions. This makes the trade-off between the electricity capacity expansion planning to meet the increase of demand and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions a challenge, specially for developing countries, which require a higher rate of economic growth. To consider this trade-off, and identify the feasibility of the targets of the electricity expansion planning, a multiperiod optimization model is proposed considering the seasonality of supply and demand and the peak period demand. The goal is to minimize the total cost, satisfying demand constraints, the maximum emission constraints and the power expansion supply restrictions for each source. An analysis of the Brazilian electricity matrix for the years 2020–2033 is performed considering two scenarios for the growth of the demand and two scenarios for the target emissions The numerical simulations indicate that the present Brazilian electricity expansion planning seems adequate to meet the Nationally Determined Contribution only under a mild economic growth rate scenario. A higher economic growth rate would require a stronger economic policy related to the power expansions of the renewable sources.

Energy Vol 213
Pengfei Sheng, Jun Li, Mengxin Zhai, Shoujun Huang

Link de acesso:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220319393