Given the increasing risk of climate change and depletion of non-renewable energy sources, countries around the world have been looking into energy profile diversification whereby biomass represents one of the most appealing alternatives for energy production feedstock. To attract interest and more investment from industry players into biomass-based industries, comprehensive techno-economic analysis has to be performed. In addition, various uncertainties related to supply chain such as biomass attainability, demand variation, and material price fluctuation, have to be considered in the evaluation to yield more accurate and reliable feasibility estimation. This review paper aims to: (i) provide an overview on the different types of methods or approaches used in the feasibility evaluation of biomass-based industries from the techno-economic point of view, and (ii) outline the supply chain uncertainties that should be incorporated into the evaluation model using a Malaysian case study to illustrate the impact of these uncertainties. Apart from that, some of the unquantifiable uncertainties and risks are critically reviewed in this paper. It was found that 78 % of the reviewed articles opted for mathematical modelling evaluation method with the majority leaning towards mathematical modelling with optimization (i.e., deterministic and stochastic optimization). Furthermore, only a minority had performed stochastic evaluation that incorporates biomass supply chain uncertainties. This review discussed six quantifiable uncertainties, include: (i) biomass availability, (ii) biomass quality, (iii) transportation cost, (iv) market demand, (v) fluctuation of pricing, and (vi) wages of workers.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Vol 135
Shirleen Lee Yuen Lo, Bing Shen How, Wei Dong Leong, Sin Yong Teng, Muhammad Akbar Rhamdhani, Jaka Sunarso