Installed capacities of wind and solar power have grown rapidly over recent years, and the pool of literature on very short-term (minutes- to hours-ahead) wind and solar forecasting has grown in line with this. This paper reviews established and emerging approaches to provide an up-to-date view of the field. Knowledge transfer between wind and solar forecasting has benefited the field and is discussed, and new opportunities are identified, particularly regarding use of remote sensing technology. Forecasting methodologies and study design are compared and recommendations for high quality, reproducible results are presented. In particular, the choice of suitable benchmarks and use of sufficiently long datasets is highlighted. A case study of three distinct approaches to probabilistic wind power forecasting is presented using an open dataset. The case study provides an example of exemplary forecast evaluation, and open source code allows for its reproduction and use in future work.

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 153

Tawn, J. Browell

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